Opening a CS2 case is basically gambling—but with prettier graphics, iconic sounds, and skins worth more than your entire Steam library. But what are your actual chances of unboxing something good?

This guide breaks down CS2 case odds, CS:GO case drop rates, percentages, probabilities, and answers common questions like “Are CS2 cases predetermined?” and “How do CS2 cases work?”

If you’re grinding cases through your weekly drops, check this guide too:
How to Get Cases in CS2.

Let’s dive in.

Official CS2 Case Odds (Valve Confirmed)

Valve publicly revealed CS:GO case odds years ago, and CS2 uses the exact same probabilities.

Here are the official drop chances:

Rarity	Odds	Description
Mil-Spec (Blue)	79.92%	Your “yep, expected that” tier
Restricted (Purple)	15.98%	The first actually exciting tier
Classified (Pink)	3.2%	Where case openings get interesting
Covert (Red)	0.64%	High-value skins, low-stress moments
Special Item (Knife/Gloves)	0.26%	The real reason you’re opening cases

These numbers are shared across all standard weapon cases.

If you want the odds specifically for knives, check this in-depth guide:
CS2 Knife Odds

Understanding Your Real Chances in Plain English

Let’s simplify the math so you know what you’re actually up against:

• You’ll get a blue in 4 out of 5 openings
  
• You’ll get a purple roughly once every 6 cases
  
• You’ll get a pink once every 30 cases
  
• You’ll get a red once every 156 cases
  
• You’ll get a knife/gloves once every 385 cases
  

And remember:
This does NOT include the cost of keys.

Factory New Odds vs Case Odds

Even if you unbox a Restricted, Classified, or Covert item, the Float is another lottery.

Rough FN odds are:

• 5–7% chance of Factory New
  
• Depends on the skin’s float range
  

For more about how float works:
CS2 Float Guide

How Do CS2 Cases Work? 

When you click “Open Case”, here’s what actually happens:

1. A random number is generated.
   
2. That number determines the rarity tier (blue → purple → pink → red → gold).
   
3. Once the rarity tier is locked, another roll determines which skin from that tier you get.
   
4. Another roll determines the float value (wear).
   
5. Then the animation plays—purely for show.
   

Animation ≠ outcome
Your skin is decided before the wheel even starts spinning.

Are CS2 Cases Predetermined?

Short answer: Yes, mostly.

Here’s what that means:

• Predetermined at the moment you open the case, not before
  
• The case item is NOT decided when you receive the case
  
• Every opening is an independent RNG roll
  

So despite all the myths:

• Switching servers
  
• Changing your viewmodel
  
• Opening cases at “unlucky” times
  
• Spinning your mouse 360 degrees
  

None of these affect your odds.

If you enjoy tweaking your setup, feel free to check:
Best CS2 Pro Settings

CS2 Weekly Case Drop Odds

You can get one case per week through your Weekly Care Package.

More details here:
CS2 Weekly Care Package Reset Guide
CS2 Drops Guide

Drop chances between different cases are weighted. Older cases drop less frequently, newer ones more often.

But the important thing is:

You cannot get more than one free case per week.

CS2 Case Opening Profitability (Realistic)

Let’s be honest:

Opening cases is almost always a net loss unless you hit:

• Covert FN
  
• High-tier gloves
  
• Blue Gem patterns
  
• Classic knives in good condition
  
• High-demand red skins (AK Vulcan, AWP Asiimov, etc.)
  

For example, if you’re chasing a Karambit Blue Gem, don’t miss:
Karambit Blue Gem Guide

CS2 Case Odds: Summary Table 

Outcome	Chance	Approx. Attempts Needed
Blue	79.92%	Every 1 case
Purple	15.98%	6 cases
Pink	3.2%	30 cases
Red	0.64%	156 cases
Gold	0.26%	385 cases

Should You Open Cases or Just Buy Skins?

If you’re opening cases for entertainment, go for it—just set a limit.

If you’re opening cases for profit, don’t.
Statistically, buying skins directly is almost always cheaper.

If you want to calculate profitable outcomes, check:
CS2 Trade-Up Calculator

Frequently Asked Questions

Are CS2 case odds the same for every case?

Yes. The rarity distribution is identical across all standard weapon cases.

Do paid case-opening sites have the same odds?

No. They are not regulated, not official, and often manipulate “perceived odds.”

Is CS2 case gambling safe?

Safe? Sure.
Profitable? Not unless you’re scientifically blessed by Gaben.

Can I improve my odds?

No. Case odds are fixed and unaffected by player behavior.

Want to Level Up Your CS2 Gameplay Too?

If you’re grinding cases between matches, check out these player-favorite guides:

• CS2 Beginner Guide
  
• How to Get Better at CS2
  
• CS2 Weapon Tier List
  
• How to Change Crosshair in CS2
  
• Best CS2 Pro Settings
  

These make great internal links across your CS2 Guides cluster.

Final Thoughts

CS2 case odds are simple, transparent, and brutally unforgiving—but that’s also part of the fun. Whether you’re hoping for a knife, a rare Covert, or just a cool blue you like using in-game, knowing the real probabilities helps you open cases smarter.

If you’re ready to explore more CS2 systems, maps, and mechanics, check out:
Complete CS2 Guides & Tutorials